Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:00:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

1C 0x1c73…1795 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$1,528 (+21%) realized +$1,743 · open −$215

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate64%14W / 8L

Drawdown26%max

Avg bet$287per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Fees−$22est.

Kalshi-fit52%portable

Net worth$644now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$202

7 days+$285

14 days+$1,488

30 days+$1,488

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)-16.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-14.6%	-22.7%	61%	61%	-3.8%
≤30d	22	-8.1%	-16.9%	64%	64%	+11.9%
≤90d	22	-8.1%	-16.9%	64%	64%	+11.9%
all	22	-8.1%	-16.9%	64%	64%	+11.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.9%	64%	+11.9%
10%	-24.8%	50%	+1.2%
15%	-32.1%	27%	-8.6%
20%	-38.8%	14%	-17.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -1% → late -15% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$169 vs −$110 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage

Net worth$644

Realized+$1,743

Unrealized−$215

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses14 / 8

Est. fees paid−$22

Open positions3

Markets (closed)22 / 25

History coverage17d

Avg bet$287

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown26%

Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	49¢	48¢	$300	$291	−$9 (-3%)
Spread: England (-1.5)	England	68¢	42¢	$438	$274	−$164 (-37%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	Yes	63¢	42¢	$120	$79	−$41 (-34%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: England (-3.5)	Jun 27	$433	−$18	-4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$362	+$77	+21%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$20	−$20	-98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$481	−$477	-99%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$525	+$210	+40%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$101	−$100	-99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$300	+$125	+42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$405	+$297	+73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$847	+$275	+32%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5)	Jun 24	$70	+$19	+27%
Spread: England (-3.5)	Jun 23	$70	+$18	+26%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$165	+$38	+23%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$147	+$18	+12%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$111	+$36	+32%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$111	−$110	-99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$30	−$30	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$226	+$27	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$130	+$95	+73%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$1,623	+$1,123	+69%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$22	−$22	-98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	Jun 14	$16	+$7	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	68¢	$443	1h
Spread: England (-3.5)	SELL Panama	74¢	$415	1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	63¢	$121	4h
Spread: England (-3.5)	BUY Panama	76¢	$299	9h
Spread: England (-3.5)	BUY Panama	76¢	$134	10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	49¢	$305	10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	82¢	$362	19h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	35¢	$20	24h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	72¢	$353	24h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	66¢	$128	26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	72¢	$202	27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	70¢	$323	28h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	53¢	$101	44h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	70¢	$300	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$405	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,122	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	76¢	$607	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	72¢	$240	3d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5)	BUY Panama	78¢	$70	3d
Spread: England (-3.5)	BUY Ghana	79¢	$70	4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5	BUY Over	81¢	$165	4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	89¢	$147	4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$147	4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	75¢	$111	5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$111	6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	75¢	$30	6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$226	6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$130	8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$22	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $643.85 · official $643.85 (match) · 46 history records