Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:01:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1c72…9051 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 568d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$118 (-3%) realized −$118 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%22W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$21
14 days−$229
30 days−$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$148
crypto 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +17.0% +5.9% 100% 100% +5.9%
≤30d 9 -3.4% -12.6% 78% 67% -25.9%
≤90d 24 +10.6% +0.1% 88% 79% -13.8%
all 38 +6.8% -3.4% 58% 53% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 53% -12.7%
10% -12.7% 24% -21.1%
15% -21.1% 5% -28.7%
20% -28.8% 5% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$40 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

568d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses22 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage568d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $63 +$10 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $60 +$11 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $50 +$12 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $262 −$262 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $192 +$42 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $139 +$42 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $347 −$239 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $317 +$59 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $250 +$21 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $265 +$33 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $219 +$41 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $190 +$37 +20%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 12 $163 −$75 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $173 +$26 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $195 +$53 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $71 +$14 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $39 +$11 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $1 $0 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1 +$1 +72%
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? Mar 24 $160 −$23 -14%
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 23 $321 −$29 -9%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 05 $96 +$63 +66%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 05 $380 −$8 -2%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jan 05 $43 −$3 -6%
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 03 $10 −$2 -22%
Solana above $200 on February 21? Jun 02 $10 $0 -2%
Ethereum above $3,400 on February 7? Feb 13 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31? Feb 02 $67 −$1 -2%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 17? Jan 20 $13 $0 -2%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on December 27? Jan 04 $10 $0 -3%
Ethereum above $3,900 on December 20? Dec 23 $10 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $4,000 on December 13? Dec 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Dec 02 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $73 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $54 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $71 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $60 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $62 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $8 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $42 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $5 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $3 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $4 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $3 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $3 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $3 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $4 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $3 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $4 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $207 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $23 14d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 14d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 14d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 14d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 14d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $200 14d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1 17d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $6 17d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $7 17d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $154 17d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $15 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records