Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c71…b342 crypto 196 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$186 (-6%) realized −$160 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%58W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$30
14 days−$54
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$240
sports 28% −$61
other 9% −$89
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +3.1% -6.7% 31% 31% -6.1%
≤30d 47 -6.4% -15.3% 32% 32% -14.3%
≤90d 187 -13.4% -21.6% 31% 31% -22.1%
all 187 -13.4% -21.6% 31% 31% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 31% -22.1%
10% -29.1% 27% -29.5%
15% -36.0% 24% -36.3%
20% -42.3% 22% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$160
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses58 / 129
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions9
Markets (closed)187 / 196
History coverage62d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Yes 28¢ 22¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-23%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $22 $19 −$4 (-16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $10 −$5 (-34%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $5 −$10 (-67%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 +$28 +139%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $35 −$35 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $4 +$16 +360%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $31 +$41 +133%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$48 -95%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $26 +$32 +124%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $45 −$24 -54%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$14 +137%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $7 +$27 +384%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 +$15 +364%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 +$21 +149%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $33 +$4 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $70 +$14 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$7 -27%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 +$20 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 02 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Michele Ribecai Jun 01 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2 +$4 +195%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $18 +$4 +22%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $49 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $20 6h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 20¢ $10 6h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 20¢ $10 24h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $10 25h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $15 25h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 21¢ $10 28h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $25 28h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 40h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 41h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 41h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 41h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 99¢ $21 41h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 97¢ $71 41h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $4 43h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $31 45h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador $2 45h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 37¢ $8 47h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 63¢ $51 47h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 70¢ $17 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 79¢ $40 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $26 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes $3 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes $4 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 44¢ $20 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 51¢ $24 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.68 · official $92.70 (match) · 424 history records