Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:11:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c70…6854 politics 201 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-1%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%48W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$6
other 33% −$42
crypto 9% −$3
sports 5% −$3
world 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -1.0% -10.5% 4% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 155 -1.1% -10.5% 14% 0% -11.2%
all 196 -0.8% -10.3% 24% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -11.0%
10% -18.9% 0% -19.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -27.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses48 / 148
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)196 / 201
History coverage99d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 51¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 -1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6PM ET Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $71 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $61 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $37 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $15 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 4m
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 36m
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 47m
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 2h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $9 3h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $6 3h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 4h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $8 5h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $8 9h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 10h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 10h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5 10h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 11h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 12h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 12h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $9 13h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $9 13h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 15h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 15h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $7 18h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $7 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 40h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.99 · official $42.99 (match) · 1102 history records