Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c6b…ab7b crypto 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$29 (+2%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate96%94W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +6.3% -3.9% 96% 7% -9.3%
≤30d 98 +6.3% -3.9% 96% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 98 +6.3% -3.9% 96% 7% -9.3%
all 98 +6.3% -3.9% 96% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 7% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 5% -18.0%
15% -21.5% 4% -25.9%
20% -29.2% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$28 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses94 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage5d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$12 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $24 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $18 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records