Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:33:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1c69…2e8b crypto 887 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$926 (-7%) realized −$880 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%400W / 486L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$867
sports 20% +$542
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 44 -27.9% -34.8% 34% 34% -32.5%
all 886 -3.6% -12.8% 45% 43% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 43% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 43% -20.0%
15% -28.8% 42% -27.8%
20% -35.8% 42% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$880
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses400 / 486
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)886 / 887
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 886 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 60¢ 4¢ $50 $4 −$46 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 26 $14 −$13 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 26 $13 +$15 +116%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 26 $12 +$16 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 26 $14 +$14 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 26 $15 +$13 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Mar 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Mar 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 26 $14 +$14 +97%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 26 $13 +$14 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 26 $12 +$15 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 26 $11 +$17 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 26 $11 +$17 +148%
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 26 $15 +$13 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 26 $14 +$14 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 26 $13 +$14 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 26 $13 +$15 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 26 $13 +$15 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 26 $15 +$13 +89%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 25 $11 +$17 +160%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 25 $9 +$19 +219%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 60¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $14 88d
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $13 88d
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $13 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $13 88d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 88d
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $13 88d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 88d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 88d
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $13 88d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $12 88d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 89d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 89d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 89d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 89d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $12 89d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $14 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $12 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $12 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $11 89d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 89d
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $13 89d
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 89d
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 89d
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 89d
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 89d
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.75 · official $3.75 (match) · 3500 history records