Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:31:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1c68…4cd4
crypto · 318 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$56 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$56 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses254 / 61
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)315 / 318
History coverage169d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 3 History 315 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$36
14 days−$29
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 75¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 61¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 79¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Boston Red Sox 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Over 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Spurs 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Spurs 50¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $9 −$8 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 09 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 07 $5 +$3 +55%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 07 $7 +$5 +67%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $6 +$10 +172%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1AM ET Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $13 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? Jun 01 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11PM ET May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET May 30 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1AM ET May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6PM ET May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5PM ET May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3AM ET May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5PM ET May 27 $16 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6PM ET May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3PM ET May 21 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3PM ET May 20 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET May 20 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET May 19 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5PM ET May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10PM ET May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4PM ET May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10PM ET May 17 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET May 16 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 61% −$30
politics 16% −$1
sports 10% −$29
other 9% +$1
world 3% $0
culture 1% +$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 87¢ $10 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 95¢ $7 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 76¢ $5 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 61¢ $5 13h
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 84¢ $5 2d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 70¢ $5 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 79¢ $7 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $5 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 70¢ $4 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 90¢ $5 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $5 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 49¢ $9 4d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $9 4d
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) BUY New York Mets 64¢ $5 5d
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $7 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ $5 8d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 95¢ $5 8d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 95¢ $5 8d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 94¢ $5 8d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Toronto Blue Jays 36¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $12 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $9 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $13 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $10 13d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $6 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -43.5% -48.9% 43% 43% -47.4%
≤30d 59 -9.8% -18.4% 83% 12% -14.5%
≤90d 263 -2.5% -11.8% 79% 3% -10.6%
all 315 -2.4% -11.7% 81% 3% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 3% -10.7%
10% -20.2% 1% -19.2%
15% -27.9% 1% -27.0%
20% -34.9% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.72 · official $19.72 (match) · 1297 history records