Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c66…ca45 sports 856 markets active 1h ago coverage 412d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$844 (-2%) realized −$844 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate74%637W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$11
14 days+$19
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$717
weather 15% −$310
other 3% +$120
culture 1% +$47
politics 0% +$24
crypto 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -15.2% -23.3% 73% 40% -7.5%
≤30d 52 -11.0% -19.5% 75% 38% -5.0%
≤90d 201 -40.2% -45.9% 52% 17% -27.5%
all 856 -7.1% -15.9% 74% 19% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 19% -11.8%
10% -24.0% 12% -20.2%
15% -31.3% 8% -27.9%
20% -38.0% 7% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$17 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

412d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$844
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses637 / 219
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)856 / 856
History coverage412d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 856 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $60 +$3 +5%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the announcers say "Submission" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $35 +$2 +5%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $28 +$2 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $85 +$1 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 14 $6 +$4 +60%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $60 +$17 +29%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -99%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $90 +$10 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $26 +$4 +14%
1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$1 +24%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $20 +$2 +11%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5) Jun 07 $12 +$8 +62%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $83 +$17 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $22 −$22 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 07 $29 +$1 +5%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $18 +$12 +70%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 06 $27 +$3 +12%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $24 +$16 +67%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-5.5) Jun 01 $11 +$9 +74%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $50 $0 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $17 +$3 +20%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $180 +$5 +3%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $21 +$4 +20%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 May 30 $46 +$4 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova May 28 $8 +$2 +23%
World Championships: Canada vs. USA May 28 $29 +$1 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Julia Grabher vs Amanda Anisimova May 28 $13 +$2 +18%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $14 +$1 +7%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? May 27 $117 +$13 +11%
World Championships: USA vs. Hungary May 25 $49 +$1 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 24 $49 +$1 +3%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 24 $0 $0 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $47 +$3 +6%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 5.5 May 21 $4 −$4 -98%
World Championships: Sweden vs. Slovenia May 20 $29 +$1 +4%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 May 20 $59 +$45 +76%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5 May 19 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $18 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 95¢ $60 1h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 73¢ $15 23h
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $86 2d
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 92¢ $28 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit BUY No 62¢ $6 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $85 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Under 77¢ $60 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No $1 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No $1 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No $1 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No $1 3d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes $1 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $50 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $45 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 3d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Golden State Valkyries 96¢ $19 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $90 4d
Will the announcers say "Submission" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 5d
Will the announcers say "Submission" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 95¢ $21 5d
Will the announcers say "Submission" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $26 5d
1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 80¢ $4 5d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 48¢ $10 7d
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 90¢ $20 8d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 61¢ $20 8d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 61¢ $12 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 83¢ $83 10d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Farés Ziam 74¢ $22 10d
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream SELL Atlanta Dream 100¢ $30 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2211 history records