Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c66…5d92 politics 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$1
other 13% $0
economics 13% $0
tech 9% $0
sports 4% $0
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 22 -0.0% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage124d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $115 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $116 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $116 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $116 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $116 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 11 $116 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $116 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $117 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $117 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $117 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $117 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $117 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 16 $117 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $235 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $117 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $117 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Feb 24 $118 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $118 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $115 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 12h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $91 12h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $115 17d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $116 17d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 21d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 22d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 25d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 26d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 31d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 32d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $116 36d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $116 36d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $116 42d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $116 42d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 44d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 44d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $117 65d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 66d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 66d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $117 70d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $117 70d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $117 74d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $36 75d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $81 75d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $117 78d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $117 79d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $117 82d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $117 83d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $117 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records