Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c5e…269b sports 363 markets active 0h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,495 (-10%) realized −$11,812 · open −$683
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%174W / 185L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1,023est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,024now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,130
7 days−$1,213
14 days−$1,724
30 days−$11,040
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$14,630
other 1% +$637
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -12.5% -20.9% 50% 47% -16.5%
≤30d 136 -18.7% -26.4% 41% 40% -26.7%
≤90d 211 -15.9% -23.9% 44% 43% -25.1%
all 359 -5.8% -14.8% 48% 48% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 48% -19.0%
10% -22.9% 47% -26.8%
15% -30.4% 44% -33.9%
20% -37.2% 37% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$268 vs −$324 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$1,024
Realized−$11,812
Unrealized−$683
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses174 / 185
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,023
Open positions4
Markets (closed)359 / 363
History coverage198d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $482 $485 +$3 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 75¢ 36¢ $1,020 $483 −$537 (-53%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 57¢ 57¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 2¢ $156 $6 −$150 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $500 −$433 -87%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $697 −$697 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $452 +$748 +165%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $665 +$425 +64%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $636 +$521 +82%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $978 −$570 -58%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,037 −$1,037 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $620 −$620 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $560 −$560 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $508 +$302 +60%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $690 +$310 +45%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $610 −$197 -32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $667 +$343 +52%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $344 −$344 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $304 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $420 −$400 -95%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $610 +$390 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $590 −$590 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $306 −$300 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $500 +$320 +64%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $704 +$216 +31%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $400 +$550 +137%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $232 −$232 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $504 +$546 +108%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $500 +$270 +54%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $498 −$498 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $704 +$396 +56%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $701 +$429 +61%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $495 +$405 +82%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $704 −$704 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $643 +$508 +79%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $275 +$225 +82%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $402 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $496 −$96 -19%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $666 +$234 +35%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $540 +$430 +80%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $412 −$390 -95%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $507 +$402 +79%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $993 −$985 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $520 −$520 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $294 −$235 -80%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $300 +$300 +100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $306 −$306 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $496 −$496 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $313 −$312 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $403 +$152 +38%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $407 −$400 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $3 13m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $99 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $105 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $84 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $383 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $231 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 6¢ $67 3h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $47 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 58¢ $377 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 64¢ $289 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 64¢ $31 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $500 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $482 16h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 61¢ $14 3d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 61¢ $2 3d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 61¢ $8 3d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 61¢ $156 3d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 61¢ $5 3d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 61¢ $78 3d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 61¢ $24 3d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 61¢ $15 3d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 61¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,023.91 · official $1,023.91 (match) · 1237 history records