Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1C 0x1c5e…0e5f other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-31%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$6
crypto 14% −$5
politics 9% −$3
sports 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-52.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +32.1% +19.5% 50% 50% -30.3%
≤30d 4 +32.1% +19.5% 50% 50% -30.3%
≤90d 4 +32.1% +19.5% 50% 50% -30.3%
all 10 -47.2% -52.2% 20% 20% -50.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.2% 20% -50.5%
10% -56.8% 20% -55.3%
15% -60.9% 20% -59.6%
20% -64.8% 20% -63.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage136d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +272%
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh Feb 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1 Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 31 Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 31 Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.79 · official $10.32 · 18 history records