Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1c5e…c20a crypto 823 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$772 (-11%) realized −$756 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%195W / 618L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day46.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$292
7 days−$239
14 days−$606
30 days−$1,113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,318
other 6% +$69
world 4% −$131
sports 0% −$7
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -20.3% -27.9% 24% 18% -21.5%
≤30d 535 -36.6% -42.6% 23% 18% -29.5%
≤90d 813 -37.1% -43.1% 24% 19% -30.1%
all 813 -37.1% -43.1% 24% 19% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.1% 19% -30.1%
10% ← realistic here -48.5% 15% -36.8%
15% -53.5% 10% -42.9%
20% -58.1% 8% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$756
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses195 / 618
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)813 / 823
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day46.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 813 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Canada? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-24%)
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 3 England? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 Portugal? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 2 Ghana? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 3 Austria? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 370 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$14 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $29 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$5 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $40 −$4 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $57 −$5 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$50 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$2 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$25 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$2 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$9 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $45 −$29 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$11 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$17 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $53 +$133 +252%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$24 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $57 +$4 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$5 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$15 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$5 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$5 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$3 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$4 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$5 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $9 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$7 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$9 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $159 −$118 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $35 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $29 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $5 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $30 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.64 · official $60.66 (match) · 3414 history records