Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:05:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1c55…0a62 crypto 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 626d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$181 (+1%) realized +$183 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate90%70W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$4,026now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$235
crypto 3% +$32
sports 0% −$86
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.7% -6.2% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 3 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 3 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 78 -2.4% -11.7% 90% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 6% -8.8%
10% -20.1% 5% -17.5%
15% -27.8% 3% -25.5%
20% -34.9% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$4,026
Realized+$183
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses70 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 81
History coverage626d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,969 $3,967 −$2 (-0%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Over 88¢ 88¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? May 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)? Mar 04 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 12 $3,446 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 10 Feb 11 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 11 $3,314 +$38 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Feb 10 $3,220 +$94 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 9? Feb 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on February 9? Feb 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on February 9? Feb 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on February 9 Feb 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.20 on February 9? Feb 10 $42 $0 +1%
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 09 $4 $0 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 8? Feb 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 09 $2,553 +$32 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on February 5? Feb 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 6? Feb 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 6 Feb 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on February 6? Feb 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 07 $3,233 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 05 $2,970 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $80 on February 4? Feb 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 4? Feb 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on February 4? Feb 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on February 4? Feb 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on February 4? Feb 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 Feb 05 $98 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 04 $156 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22? Feb 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-03? Feb 04 $4 $0 +3%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-03? Feb 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 Feb 04 $36 +$9 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 4? Feb 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.50 on February 3? Feb 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 3 Feb 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on February 3? Feb 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 3? Feb 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 3? Feb 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on February 3? Feb 03 $69 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 03 $2,927 +$43 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 4? Feb 03 $4 $0 +0%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Feb 03 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 5? Feb 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Feb 03 $15 $0 +0%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26? Jan 04 $1 $0 +25%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 04 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,970 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $30 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 22d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 22d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 103d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 BUY No 100¢ $3,446 125d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 BUY No 99¢ $3,314 125d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 10 BUY No 100¢ $56 126d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 BUY No 100¢ $39 126d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 99¢ $8 126d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3,220 127d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on February 9? BUY No 99¢ $10 127d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on February 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 127d
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.20 on February 9? BUY No 99¢ $42 127d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 9? BUY No 100¢ $8 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on February 9 BUY No 100¢ $23 127d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 BUY No 99¢ $40 128d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 BUY No 99¢ $2,514 128d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 8? BUY No 100¢ $6 128d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Spirit 50¢ $4 128d
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 128d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $3,233 130d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $17 130d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 6 BUY No 100¢ $15 130d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $15 130d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on February 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 130d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 SELL No 100¢ $2,973 130d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $71 131d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $46 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,025.97 · official $4,025.97 (match) · 163 history records