Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1C 0x1c53…2eeb crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$168 (-7%) realized −$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate68%32W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -34.3% -40.5% 33% 33% -43.4%
≤30d 3 -34.3% -40.5% 33% 33% -43.4%
≤90d 3 -34.3% -40.5% 33% 33% -43.4%
all 47 -5.1% -14.2% 68% 47% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 47% -18.0%
10% -22.4% 40% -25.8%
15% -29.9% 34% -33.0%
20% -36.7% 19% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$45 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses32 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage145d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$24 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Mar 04 $22 −$17 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 25 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 25 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 25 $37 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Feb 23 $38 −$37 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Feb 23 $38 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Feb 23 $38 +$23 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Feb 23 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Feb 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 23 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Feb 23 $50 +$34 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Feb 23 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Feb 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Feb 23 $50 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 23 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 22 $245 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 22 $50 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Feb 22 $50 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 21 $50 +$45 +90%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 21 $50 +$49 +99%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 21 $50 +$40 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 20 $50 +$40 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 07 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 07 $20 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 07 $114 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 07 $20 +$5 +27%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 07 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 06 $135 +$14 +10%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 06 $20 +$9 +44%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 06 $20 +$5 +27%
XRP Up or Down - February 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 05 $20 +$4 +21%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 05 $20 +$8 +41%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 05 $20 +$12 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 05 $114 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Feb 04 $30 +$6 +21%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 04 $20 +$19 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $100 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $5 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $22 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $30 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $37 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $38 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $38 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $38 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $50 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $50 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $50 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $50 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $50 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $50 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $245 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $245 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $51 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $50 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $50 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records