Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:35:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c52…635f world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$5
other 29% −$4
politics 10% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
sports 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.3% -8.4% 60% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 17 +51.0% +36.6% 35% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 17 +51.0% +36.6% 35% 6% -8.9%
all 44 +19.3% +8.0% 34% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.0% 5% -9.4%
10% -2.4% 5% -18.1%
15% -11.8% 5% -26.0%
20% -20.5% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage273d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $69 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $26 +$1 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $65 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $61 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $61 +$2 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $66 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $81 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $58 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $111 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $120 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $37 +$2 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $3 $0 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $8 −$1 -10%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $63 +$4 +7%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 16 $22 $0 +1%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Oct 13 $8 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $1 +$1 +81%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5? Oct 04 $7 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $7 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 02 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $54 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $15 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $24 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $47 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $14 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $60 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $23 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $43 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $65 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $41 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $18 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 69¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 69¢ $59 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $61 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $65 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $32 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.73 · official $68.80 (match) · 190 history records