Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:49:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c51…2383 world 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate34%26W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% $0
politics 24% −$6
other 21% −$8
sports 18% −$3
economics 5% $0
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 14% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 18 -0.7% -10.1% 22% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 67 -1.8% -11.2% 34% 1% -9.6%
all 77 -8.4% -17.1% 34% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 1% -10.1%
10% -25.0% 0% -18.7%
15% -32.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -38.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses26 / 51
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage525d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 86¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $72 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $29 +$2 +8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $25 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $29 −$4 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $32 −$3 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $32 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $32 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $4 $0 -12%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $35 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $93 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $64 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $65 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $32 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $141 −$2 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $33 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $61 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $130 $0 +0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $63 $0 +1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $66 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $65 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 09 $37 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $28 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $7 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $30 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $28 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $28 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $15 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $6 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $24 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $30 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $30 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $30 8d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 9d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $21 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.94 · official $28.21 (match) · 278 history records