Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:54:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1c50…b4c7 other 189 markets active 3h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$796 (+30%) realized +$796 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate89%161W / 19L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$332
7 days+$332
14 days+$333
30 days+$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$8
politics 35% +$442
tech 15% +$332
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +7.4% -2.8% 86% 7% +60.5%
≤30d 54 +2.1% -7.6% 96% 2% +38.5%
≤90d 146 +0.9% -8.7% 95% 5% +26.3%
all 180 +5.8% -4.3% 89% 6% +18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 6% +18.1%
10% -13.4% 5% +6.8%
15% -21.8% 4% -3.5%
20% -29.5% 3% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×78.14 per $1 lost it wins $78.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$796
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses161 / 19
Open positions9
Markets (closed)180 / 189
History coverage134d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 25 $361 +$332 +92%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $4 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $50 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $50 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.92 · official $44.92 (match) · 566 history records