trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +9.5% | -0.9% | 100% | 0% | -0.9% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +6.7% | -3.4% | 100% | 25% | -3.9% |
| all | 15 | +1.3% | -8.3% | 73% | 20% | -10.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.3% | 20% | -10.7% |
| 10% | -17.1% | 0% | -19.2% |
| 15% | -25.1% | 0% | -27.0% |
| 20% | -32.4% | 0% | -34.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? | No | 81¢ | 48¢ | $10 | $6 | −$4 (-41%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? | Jun 05 | $5 | $0 | +10% |
| EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? | Apr 01 | $9 | +$1 | +11% |
| EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? | Apr 01 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Apr 01 | $17 | +$1 | +6% |
| ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Jan 22 | $60 | −$21 | -35% |
| ETHGAS FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Jan 22 | $31 | +$2 | +6% |
| Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Jan 21 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Jan 21 | $20 | −$1 | -4% |
| Elsa FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Jan 21 | $102 | −$1 | -0% |
| Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch? | Jan 21 | $7 | +$1 | +11% |
| Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch? | Jan 21 | $136 | +$4 | +3% |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 | Jan 19 | $40 | −$1 | -4% |
| Owlto FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Jan 17 | $20 | +$2 | +11% |
| Owlto FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Jan 17 | $100 | +$1 | +1% |
| Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Jan 16 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |