Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:26:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1C 0x1c50…f4d5 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$4 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$9
crypto 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +9.5% -0.9% 100% 0% -0.9%
≤90d 4 +6.7% -3.4% 100% 25% -3.9%
all 15 +1.3% -8.3% 73% 20% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 20% -10.7%
10% -17.1% 0% -19.2%
15% -25.1% 0% -27.0%
20% -32.4% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage152d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? No 81¢ 48¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $5 $0 +10%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $9 +$1 +11%
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 01 $10 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 01 $17 +$1 +6%
ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 22 $60 −$21 -35%
ETHGAS FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jan 22 $31 +$2 +6%
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 21 $10 $0 +1%
Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jan 21 $20 −$1 -4%
Elsa FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jan 21 $102 −$1 -0%
Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch? Jan 21 $7 +$1 +11%
Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch? Jan 21 $136 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 19 $40 −$1 -4%
Owlto FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Owlto FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jan 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 11d
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $7 75d
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 74¢ $5 75d
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 75d
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 75d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $13 75d
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL No 72¢ $3 76d
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 76d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 98¢ $5 76d
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 90¢ $4 76d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $10 76d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 89¢ $5 76d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 87¢ $2 76d
ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 62¢ $39 145d
ETHGAS FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL No 97¢ $33 145d
ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 95¢ $60 145d
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 75¢ $10 145d
ETHGAS FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 91¢ $31 145d
Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 79¢ $19 145d
Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 145d
Elsa FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 145d
Elsa FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 145d
Elsa FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 94¢ $92 145d
Elsa FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 96¢ $80 145d
Elsa FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 85¢ $12 146d
Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch? BUY No 90¢ $7 146d
Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch? BUY No 95¢ $20 146d
Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch? BUY No 95¢ $60 147d
Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch? BUY No 95¢ $10 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.91 · official $5.91 (match) · 46 history records