Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1C 0x1c4f…e321 crypto 1205 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$577 (-6%) realized −$577 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate81%971W / 234L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days−$148
14 days−$185
30 days−$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$125
economics 5% −$43
politics 3% −$98
other 1% +$13
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -26.9% -33.9% 36% 18% -26.4%
≤30d 815 +1.2% -8.5% 87% 44% -12.3%
≤90d 1161 -0.1% -9.6% 83% 45% -11.4%
all 1205 -1.4% -10.8% 81% 44% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 44% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 16% -20.4%
15% -27.1% 7% -28.1%
20% -34.2% 4% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$577
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses971 / 234
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1205 / 1205
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1205 Trades
no open positions (183 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 20 $443 −$43 -10%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 20 $26 −$24 -92%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 20 $45 −$2 -5%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $43 +$9 +22%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +35%
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 20 $13 −$7 -52%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 19 $162 −$65 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $26 −$15 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $46 −$31 -68%
Will Ethereum reach $1,600 on June 6? Jun 07 $0 +$5 +1329%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $13 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 02 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 01 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 01 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 01 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 01 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 01 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 01 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 01 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 01 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 01 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 01 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 01 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 01 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 01 $13 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 01 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 01 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 01 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 31 $10 +$2 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $380 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No 3¢ $0 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No 4¢ $2 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL No 42¢ $43 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $13 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 43¢ $45 2h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e SELL Yes 21¢ $6 3h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY Yes 44¢ $13 3h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $30 7h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 7h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 8h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 46¢ $26 9h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 19h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 20h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 20h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 20h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 20h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 24h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 25h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 25h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 25h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 26h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 26h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 26h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 26h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 26h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $422 32h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 33h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $95 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records