Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c4e…4150 crypto 521 markets active 7d ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1650 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28,652 (+237%) realized +$28,652 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate55%299W / 242L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1650.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1650 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -19.6% -27.3% 35% 24% -17.5%
≤30d 541 +4.6% -5.4% 55% 37% -11.0%
≤90d 541 +4.6% -5.4% 55% 37% -11.0%
all 541 +4.6% -5.4% 55% 37% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1650.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 37% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 27% -19.5%
15% -22.7% 19% -27.3%
20% -30.3% 11% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28,652
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses299 / 242
Open positions0
Markets (closed)541 / 521
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1650.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 541 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $30 −$10 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $32 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $18 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $90 −$15 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$7 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $38 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $58 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $71 −$16 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $105 −$35 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $40 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $54 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $91 −$16 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $54 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $35 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $22 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $50 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $14 −$9 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $22 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $46 −$11 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records