Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1c4d…f448 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$396 (-4%) realized −$396 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%14W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$560per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$409
crypto 32% +$5
tech 18% +$5
other 10% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 33% -7.9%
≤90d 14 -5.6% -14.6% 93% 7% -14.1%
all 15 -5.2% -14.3% 93% 7% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 7% -13.6%
10% -22.5% 0% -21.9%
15% -30.0% 0% -29.4%
20% -36.8% 0% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$431 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized−$396
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses14 / 1
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage95d
Avg bet$560
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $203 $203 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $423 $0 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $65 +$11 +17%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $403 +$5 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $431 −$431 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on May 26? May 27 $832 +$3 +0%
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 global Netflix show this May 20 $117 +$1 +1%
Will "Lord of the Flies" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? May 20 $314 +$1 +0%
Will "Funny AF with Kevin Hart" be the #2 global Netflix show this wee May 20 $398 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on May 13? May 14 $829 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $828 +$2 +0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 23 $827 +$1 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 14 $823 +$4 +0%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $822 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 2? Apr 03 $821 +$1 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 23 above $450? Mar 29 $819 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $203 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $423 20d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner SELL Team WE $29 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE $20 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 47¢ $47 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 45¢ $45 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 86¢ $408 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 85¢ $276 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 85¢ $127 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 30¢ $30 30d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 39¢ $98 30d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 59¢ $148 30d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 78¢ $156 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $832 36d
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 global Netflix show this BUY No 99¢ $117 42d
Will "Funny AF with Kevin Hart" be the #2 global Netflix show this wee BUY No 100¢ $398 42d
Will "Lord of the Flies" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $314 42d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $829 49d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $828 62d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Weibo Gaming 100¢ $827 68d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $823 77d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $822 84d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $821 90d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 23 above $450? BUY No 100¢ $819 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.90 · official $202.90 (match) · 37 history records