Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c4a…4054 crypto 7 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-25%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -28.1% -34.9% 57% 14% -34.5%
≤30d 7 -28.1% -34.9% 57% 14% -34.5%
≤90d 7 -28.1% -34.9% 57% 14% -34.5%
all 7 -28.1% -34.9% 57% 14% -34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 14% -34.5%
10% -41.2% 0% -40.7%
15% -46.9% 0% -46.5%
20% -52.1% 0% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$8 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records