Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c4a…b3d0 crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (156 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$61 (-15%) realized −$2 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate66%27W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day156.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$12
world 22% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (156 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -10.2% -18.7% 66% 56% -13.8%
≤30d 41 -10.2% -18.7% 66% 56% -13.8%
≤90d 41 -10.2% -18.7% 66% 56% -13.8%
all 41 -10.2% -18.7% 66% 56% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover156.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 56% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 44% -22.0%
15% -33.6% 22% -29.6%
20% -40.1% 5% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses27 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day156.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 3¢ 1¢ $79 $21 −$59 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$7 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +39%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$14 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.56 · official $20.56 (match) · 188 history records