Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c49…bf1e other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$1
world 35% −$2
politics 7% $0
culture 6% $0
sports 6% $0
finance 5% +$2
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 17% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 7 -7.3% -16.2% 14% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 14 +138.2% +115.5% 29% 7% -10.3%
all 40 +48.6% +34.4% 30% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.4% 2% -9.9%
10% +21.5% 2% -18.5%
15% +9.8% 2% -26.4%
20% -1.0% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +97% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage307d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $29 +$1 +3%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $51 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $8 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $7 −$4 -54%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $29 +$7 +25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $42 +$2 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $89 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $1 $0 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $39 −$3 -9%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $24 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in August? Aug 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 22–August 29? Aug 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Aug 24 $28 $0 +0%
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass? Aug 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 22 $4 $0 +1%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $9 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $16 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $27 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $43 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $32 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $11 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $43 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $48 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $48 2d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $32 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.69 · official $35.40 (match) · 119 history records