Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1C 0x1c49…0741 tech 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$70 (-22%) realized −$38 · open −$32

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip

Net edge+13%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate60%6W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day4.4pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit69%portable

Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+18.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+30.5%	+18.0%	60%	50%	-32.8%
≤30d	10	+30.5%	+18.0%	60%	50%	-32.8%
≤90d	10	+30.5%	+18.0%	60%	50%	-32.8%
all	10	+30.5%	+18.0%	60%	50%	-32.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+18.0%	50%	-32.8%
10%	+6.7%	40%	-39.2%
15%	-3.6%	30%	-45.1%
20%	-13.0%	30%	-50.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +30% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$27 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.42 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$18

Realized−$38

Unrealized−$32

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses6 / 4

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions5

Markets (closed)10 / 16

History coverage5d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day4.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$15	$15	−$0 (-1%)
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-17%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$2	$1	−$1 (-28%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	36¢	0¢	$26	$0	−$26 (-100%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5	Over	40¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$2	+$9	+416%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 15	$15	+$13	+83%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$36	−$35	-98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	+$15	+148%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Jun 12	$5	+$1	+24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?	Jun 12	$50	+$3	+5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Jun 12	$50	+$6	+12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-90%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?	Jun 12	$21	−$19	-92%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Jun 12	$51	−$50	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	15m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5	BUY Over	40¢	$5	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$25	1h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$2	21h
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at t	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL	9¢	$11	22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	2¢	$2	29h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY	50¢	$25	42h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$15	42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	66¢	$28	43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	24¢	$10	44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	35¢	$15	44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	57¢	$25	44h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	59¢	$25	46h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?	SELL Yes	2¢	$0	5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	BUY Yes	80¢	$5	5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?	BUY No	95¢	$50	5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	BUY Yes	89¢	$50	5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?	BUY Yes	25¢	$21	5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	BUY Yes	43¢	$51	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.03 · official $42.96 · 27 history records