Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:58:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1C 0x1c44…5d15 sports 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,304 (-20%) realized −$3,299 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%60W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138
7 days−$383
14 days+$42
30 days−$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$3,052
other 2% −$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -72.5% -75.1% 20% 20% -69.0%
≤30d 28 -5.0% -14.0% 50% 50% -19.1%
≤90d 81 -13.1% -21.4% 48% 48% -21.4%
all 132 -18.8% -26.5% 45% 45% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 45% -28.0%
10% -33.5% 45% -34.9%
15% -40.0% 39% -41.2%
20% -45.8% 24% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$113 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$3,299
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses60 / 72
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage169d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $134 $129 −$5 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $139 −$138 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $67 −$66 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $145 +$55 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$152 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $84 −$82 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $73 −$72 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $71 +$129 +180%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $90 +$110 +122%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $135 +$65 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $65 −$64 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $63 +$137 +216%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 10 $145 +$55 +38%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $133 +$67 +50%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $87 +$63 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $133 −$132 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $196 −$194 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $135 +$65 +48%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $125 −$124 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $111 −$110 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $105 +$95 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $117 −$116 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $111 −$110 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $85 −$84 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $127 +$73 +57%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $115 +$85 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $91 −$90 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $95 +$105 +109%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $91 +$109 +119%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $139 +$61 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $103 +$47 +46%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 20 $68 +$52 +76%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $137 −$136 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $129 −$128 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 17 $103 −$3 -3%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $133 +$67 +50%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $125 −$124 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $247 +$53 +21%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $129 −$128 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $133 +$67 +50%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $83 −$82 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $145 +$55 +38%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 06 $77 −$65 -84%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $62 −$61 -98%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Play May 04 $167 +$94 +56%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $83 −$82 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $113 +$87 +76%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 30 $103 −$3 -3%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $138 +$60 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $139 30h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $67 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 72¢ $145 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $153 4d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $84 6d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 36¢ $73 7d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $71 8d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $45 9d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $45 9d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $135 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $65 11d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 31¢ $63 11d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY XLG Gaming 72¢ $145 13d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Team Vitality 66¢ $133 14d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Leviatán Esports 57¢ $87 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $133 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $64 18d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 67¢ $135 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $133 20d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $125 21d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 55¢ $111 22d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 52¢ $105 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $117 23d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $111 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 42¢ $85 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $127 26d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 57¢ $115 28d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 45¢ $91 29d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 45¢ $91 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.00 · official $129.00 (match) · 212 history records