Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:49:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1c43…9a84 other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$84 (+0%) realized +$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate25%19W / 57L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 65% −$14
politics 16% −$7
other 14% −$14
tech 2% $0
sports 1% +$116
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +4.5% -5.5% 17% 6% -8.7%
≤90d 62 +5.9% -4.2% 26% 18% -7.7%
all 76 +4.7% -5.3% 25% 14% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 14% -9.2%
10% -14.4% 14% -17.9%
15% -22.6% 13% -25.8%
20% -30.2% 12% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×5.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses19 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage593d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 59¢ 60¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $7 +$6 +83%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $33 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $22 $0 -0%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $164 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $157 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $8 +$4 +44%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $163 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $151 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $149 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 06 $70 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $164 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 26 $322 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $165 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 25 $164 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 25 $161 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $163 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 24 $149 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $158 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $161 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $155 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $153 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $314 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $155 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $154 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $166 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $156 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +72%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $17 7h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $97 15h
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $37 25h
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $37 26h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 43h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 45h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 5d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 7d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 9d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $7 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 12d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $29 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $29 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $22 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $22 18d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 19d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 20d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $45 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.59 · official $114.59 (match) · 282 history records