Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:11:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1c40…6ad3
crypto · 172 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$4 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses107 / 65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)172 / 172
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 172 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$4
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -8.5% -17.2% 64% 46% -16.3%
≤30d 172 -0.8% -10.2% 62% 44% -8.8%
≤90d 172 -0.8% -10.2% 62% 44% -8.8%
all 172 -0.8% -10.2% 62% 44% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 44% -8.8%
10% -18.8% 24% -17.5%
15% -26.7% 19% -25.5%
20% -33.9% 14% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 280 history records