Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

1C 0x1c3f…e363 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$8 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate71%12W / 5L

Drawdown26%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day41.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+10.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+22.6%	+10.9%	71%	47%	+6.5%
≤30d	17	+22.6%	+10.9%	71%	47%	+6.5%
≤90d	17	+22.6%	+10.9%	71%	47%	+6.5%
all	17	+22.6%	+10.9%	71%	47%	+6.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover41.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+10.9%	47%	+6.5%
10% ← realistic here	+0.3%	35%	-3.7%
15%	-9.4%	35%	-13.0%
20%	-18.3%	18%	-21.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 56% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +23% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +23% → late +23% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.73 per $1 lost it wins $3.73

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$27

Realized+$8

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses12 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage1d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day41.0

Drawdown26%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17?	Up	49¢	46¢	$29	$27	−$2 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 17	$29	+$4	+14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$80	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Jun 17	$26	−$26	-100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs	Jun 17	$22	+$1	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$34	+132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$11	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 17	$76	+$11	+14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 17	$5	$0	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$5	+99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Jun 17	$10	+$1	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Jun 17	$31	+$25	+82%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds	Jun 17	$25	−$2	-6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox	Jun 17	$24	+$1	+3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals	Jun 17	$17	+$7	+43%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$16	+$1	+6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$11	+$5	+48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 16	$11	$0	-4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	49¢	$30	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	SELL Up	77¢	$33	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$29	4m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	98¢	$80	8m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	98¢	$80	11m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs	SELL Colorado Rockies	90¢	$23	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$60	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$26	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$26	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	SELL Up	76¢	$37	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	27m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs	BUY Colorado Rockies	84¢	$22	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$26	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$25	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	SELL Up	91¢	$31	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$25	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	SELL Up	77¢	$30	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$26	48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	SELL Up	64¢	$5	49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$5	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	SELL Up	80¢	$10	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$5	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	SELL Up	97¢	$5	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$5	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	SELL Up	89¢	$6	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$5	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$45	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	SELL Up	53¢	$12	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.98 · official $28.76 · 45 history records