Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:54:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1c3f…05ae crypto 674 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$16 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate86%573W / 97L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$7
14 days+$10
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$3
politics 25% −$8
world 17% +$5
crypto 14% +$3
tech 8% $0
culture 5% −$4
economics 1% −$20
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 +7.0% -3.2% 86% 28% -9.3%
≤30d 669 +0.8% -8.8% 86% 25% -9.6%
≤90d 669 +0.8% -8.8% 86% 25% -9.6%
all 670 +0.7% -8.9% 86% 25% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 25% -9.8%
10% -17.6% 13% -18.4%
15% -25.6% 6% -26.3%
20% -32.9% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses573 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)670 / 674
History coverage229d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 670 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $289 $289 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $118 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $27 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 15 $143 −$2 -1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $320 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $235 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $211 $0 -0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 13 $420 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $13 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 45m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $290 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2h
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL No 99¢ $141 2h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $320 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 14h
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No 100¢ $143 14h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $320 14h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $235 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 20h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $211 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.30 · official $414.30 (match) · 1424 history records