Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c3e…86a3 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$14 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$6
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$15
sports 8% −$39
crypto 8% +$29
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-45.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -37.3% -43.3% 38% 38% -8.4%
≤30d 33 -39.2% -45.0% 36% 36% -9.6%
≤90d 33 -39.2% -45.0% 36% 36% -9.6%
all 33 -39.2% -45.0% 36% 36% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.0% 36% -9.6%
10% -50.2% 24% -18.2%
15% -55.0% 24% -26.1%
20% -59.5% 15% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage8d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$18 +342%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $53 +$11 +20%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -67%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$8 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 +$18 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 +$14 +68%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $42 +$29 +70%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$3 +19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 +$10 +55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 21h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 21h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 22h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 82¢ $23 22h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 34h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 41h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $39 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $27 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $24 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $28 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $36 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.95 · official $27.95 (match) · 64 history records