Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1C 0x1c3e…176d sports 88 markets active 16h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,709 (+15%) realized +$8,209 · open +$500
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%37W / 45L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$675per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$631est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$9,264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$700
14 days+$668
30 days+$4,856
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$6,626
economics 12% +$411
other 4% +$114
crypto 2% +$92
world 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +43.2% +29.5% 43% 29% +1.4%
≤30d 50 +35.0% +22.1% 44% 40% +13.1%
≤90d 67 +22.4% +10.8% 42% 34% -2.2%
all 82 +19.1% +7.8% 45% 38% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.8% 38% +2.8%
10% ← realistic here -2.5% 34% -7.1%
15% -11.9% 27% -16.1%
20% -20.6% 24% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$622) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$707 vs −$433 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$9,264
Realized+$8,209
Unrealized+$500
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses37 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$631
Open positions6
Markets (closed)82 / 88
History coverage141d
Avg bet$675
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $3,906 $4,074 +$169 (+4%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $3,430 $3,690 +$260 (+8%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $833 $856 +$22 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $210 $288 +$78 (+37%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $258 $222 −$36 (-14%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 33¢ 35¢ $126 $133 +$8 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 25 $204 +$6 +3%
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? Jun 24 $732 +$264 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? Jun 23 $3 +$42 +1249%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $53 +$17 +33%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $61 −$60 -99%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Jun 22 $3,457 +$236 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in June? Jun 22 $6 −$5 -80%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,050 +$450 +43%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $79 −$68 -86%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $47 +$53 +113%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 18 $413 +$143 +35%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $85 +$115 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $54 +$246 +456%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $121 −$121 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in June? Jun 16 $5 +$26 +543%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $97 +$103 +106%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 −$51 -51%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? Jun 15 $213 −$146 -68%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Jun 15 $622 −$273 -44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 15 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 +$143 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $126 −$91 -72%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $297 +$43 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $192 −$192 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $378 +$122 +32%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $260 +$140 +54%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $92 +$128 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $117 −$117 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $195 +$105 +54%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May? Jun 10 $390 +$337 +86%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $3,786 +$6,827 +180%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in May? Jun 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $485 −$430 -89%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $3,803 −$2,564 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 07 $30 +$170 +567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 07 $90 −$90 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? Jun 01 $1,026 −$37 -4%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 +$23 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $210 16h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $155 20h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $60 23h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $14 30h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $45 31h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $93 32h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 32h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 38h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 38h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 38h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 38h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 40h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 41h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 41h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 41h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $78 41h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $64 41h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 41h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $30 46h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 47h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 53¢ $596 2d
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? SELL Yes 29¢ $141 2d
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 2d
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $549 2d
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 2d
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,264.06 · official $9,264.56 (match) · 2403 history records