Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c3d…e67a sports 210 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%30W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$3
other 22% −$5
politics 20% −$3
crypto 9% $0
economics 8% −$1
culture 5% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 85 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.7%
all 210 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses30 / 180
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)210 / 210
History coverage163d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 210 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 17 $28 $0 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $91 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $72 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 20 $89 −$1 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 19 $126 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 19 $34 $0 -1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $60 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $26 $0 -0%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) Apr 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $67 +$1 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 11 $58 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 10 $29 $0 +1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $113 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 07 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 04 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 92¢ $28 1h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 93¢ $28 5h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $33 8d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $33 8d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $22 21d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $22 22d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 95¢ $26 29d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 95¢ $27 30d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $21 57d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $8 57d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $13 57d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $32 57d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $32 58d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $20 58d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $20 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? SELL No 94¢ $27 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 96¢ $27 58d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $23 58d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $24 58d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $28 58d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $28 59d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 59d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $34 59d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 59d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 59d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 59d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 59d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $33 59d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $33 60d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $27 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 844 history records