Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:55:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1C 0x1c3c…8f25 other 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 1205d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,454 (+4%) realized +$3,454 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate47%74W / 84L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$522per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$2,461
world 29% +$931
politics 3% +$55
sports 2% −$50
culture 2% +$28
crypto 0% −$6
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 -1.7% -11.1% 40% 13% -7.3%
all 158 -5.7% -14.7% 47% 18% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 18% -5.8%
10% -22.8% 8% -14.8%
15% -30.3% 6% -23.1%
20% -37.1% 5% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$16 · ×3.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.87 per $1 lost it wins $3.87
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1205d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$3,454
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses74 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)158 / 160
History coverage1205d
Avg bet$522
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next? No 50¢ 52¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $303 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $17 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1,470 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $2 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $16 +$2 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 10 $4 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $10 +$10 +100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 08 $2 $0 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 07 $1,088 −$22 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $30 +$5 +17%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $141 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 28 $193 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Apr 28 $1,361 −$2 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 28 $378 −$7 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $96 +$1 +1%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 28 $800 −$60 -8%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $351 −$20 -6%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Apr 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $474 +$26 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $819 +$32 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $4 −$3 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $59 −$22 -37%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $1,382 +$215 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $1,563 −$182 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $312 +$143 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 13 $1 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 13 $3 −$1 -33%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 12 $378 −$9 -2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 12 $501 +$5 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 12 $596 +$5 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 11 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $195 27m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $195 27m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $98 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $0 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $2 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $2 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $1 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $0 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $1 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $0 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $0 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $2 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $0 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $0 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $2 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $1 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? SELL No 99¢ $2 11d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY No 100¢ $2 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 12d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.98 · official $14.98 (match) · 3229 history records