Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:03:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c37…aea8 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$48 (-39%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$45
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$45
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -2.2% -11.5% 58% 58% -52.2%
≤30d 15 -21.8% -29.2% 47% 47% -53.7%
≤90d 15 -21.8% -29.2% 47% 47% -53.7%
all 15 -21.8% -29.2% 47% 47% -53.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 47% -53.7%
10% -36.0% 33% -58.1%
15% -42.2% 27% -62.2%
20% -47.9% 20% -65.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage9d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 +$3 +197%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 $0 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 $0 +31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 +$1 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $16 +$7 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $16 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $12 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 8d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.80 · official $24.80 (match) · 23 history records