Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1C 0x1c36…7c78 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+13%) realized +$22 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$23
politics 9% $0
crypto 6% +$1
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +27.7% +15.6% 100% 50% +27.0%
≤30d 2 +27.7% +15.6% 100% 50% +27.0%
≤90d 2 +27.7% +15.6% 100% 50% +27.0%
all 2 +27.7% +15.6% 100% 50% +27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.6% 50% +27.0%
10% +4.5% 50% +14.9%
15% -5.6% 50% +3.8%
20% -14.9% 0% -6.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)2 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 80¢ 90¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+13%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $45 +$22 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $10 8h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 8h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $5 8h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $10 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.74 · official $118.74 · 20 history records