Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:29:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1c34…02cd
crypto · 1230 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$783 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$777 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$195
Realized−$777
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses278 / 892
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions61
Markets (closed)1170 / 1230
History coverage7d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day380.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 61 History 1170 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$528
7 days−$777
14 days−$777
30 days−$777
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? No 20¢ 100¢ $5 $25 +$20 (+400%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 38¢ 50¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Germany 31¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 31¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Over 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 13¢ 13¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Germany leading at halftime? No 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the median home value in Chicago be between $342,000 and $345,000 on June 30? No 73¢ 80¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? No 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Over 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Under 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Over 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? No 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -10%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will IFK Mariehamn vs. IF Gnistan end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 13 $3 −$2 -66%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will CD La Serena win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $10 −$1 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 61% −$419
sports 26% −$330
other 7% −$43
world 2% −$8
weather 2% +$28
politics 1% +$8
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$10
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 20m
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) SELL Spurs 30¢ $5 30m
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? SELL No 16¢ $5 30m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 18¢ $5 30m
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Iraq 30¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $9 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1170 -14.7% -22.8% 24% 22% -19.0%
≤30d 1170 -14.7% -22.8% 24% 22% -19.0%
≤90d 1170 -14.7% -22.8% 24% 22% -19.0%
all 1170 -14.7% -22.8% 24% 22% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover380.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 22% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 19% -26.8%
15% -37.0% 17% -33.9%
20% -43.1% 15% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.14 · official $195.28 (match) · 3500 history records