Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:47:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1C 0x1c33…4f3b crypto 1366 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,151 (+1%) realized +$2,151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%1330W / 36L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day64.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$166
14 days+$160
30 days+$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$614
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 403 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 1212 +0.7% -8.8% 97% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 1366 +0.8% -8.8% 97% 2% -9.3%
all 1366 +0.8% -8.8% 97% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 2% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$94 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1330 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1366 / 1366
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$161
Trades / day64.5
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1366 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $143 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $146 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $146 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $141 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $237 −$87 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $144 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $143 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $148 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $146 +$4 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $146 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $147 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $148 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $148 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $147 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $94 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $148 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $148 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $147 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $149 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $147 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $149 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $149 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $56 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $37 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $56 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $146 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $148 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $148 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $148 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $149 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $149 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $148 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $148 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $148 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records