Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:59:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1c30…0559
other · 19 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
−$838 -35%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$868 · open +$30
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$380
Realized−$868
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)9 / 19
History coverage127d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%
Chart Positions 10 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$772
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $45 $87 +$42 (+93%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+21%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $55 $48 −$7 (-12%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $25 $39 +$14 (+57%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $45 $35 −$10 (-23%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $35 $20 −$15 (-42%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 24 $53 −$18 -35%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $101 −$39 -39%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 15 $1,568 −$638 -41%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 27 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 22 $50 +$8 +15%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 06 $50 −$1 -1%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Feb 06 $50 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 84% −$661
world 10% −$82
sports 3% −$77
culture 2% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 1h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 51¢ $77 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 20d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 20d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 20d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 20d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $36 20d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $47 20d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $47 20d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $47 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $57 20d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $34 20d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $62 20d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $53 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 28d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $930 28d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,568 29d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 111d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $58 111d
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho BUY No 39¢ $50 127d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $49 127d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $50 127d
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? SELL Yes 71¢ $48 127d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $50 127d
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-50.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -53.6% -58.0% 0% 0% -48.4%
≤90d 4 -53.6% -58.0% 0% 0% -48.4%
all 9 -44.9% -50.2% 11% 11% -47.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.2% 11% -47.8%
10% -55.0% 0% -52.8%
15% -59.3% 0% -57.4%
20% -63.3% 0% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.52 · official $379.52 (match) · 49 history records