Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1c30…b668
weather · 34 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$128 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open −$99
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$220
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)23 / 34
History coverage11d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 11 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 26¢ 16¢ $200 $127 −$73 (-37%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 53¢ 40¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 99¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+154%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Yes 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Yes 35¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Yes 45¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Yes 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Yes 54¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Yes 36¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Yes 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 8? Yes 36¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 10? Yes 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Yes 36¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? No $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +176%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $60 −$30 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +161%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $10 −$6 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$10 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$4 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 86% −$127
weather 12% +$4
sports 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 35m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 35m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 36m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $30 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 32h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 38h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +5.0% -5.0% 48% 48% -35.8%
≤30d 23 +5.0% -5.0% 48% 48% -35.8%
≤90d 23 +5.0% -5.0% 48% 48% -35.8%
all 23 +5.0% -5.0% 48% 48% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 48% -35.8%
10% -14.1% 43% -42.0%
15% -22.4% 43% -47.6%
20% -30.0% 39% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.23 · official $220.23 (match) · 52 history records