Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:42:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1c2f…7b94 world 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$124 (+1%) realized +$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate38%32W / 52L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$68
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$137
other 34% −$24
sports 10% −$3
politics 6% +$12
finance 2% +$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 30 +5.2% -4.8% 37% 7% -6.9%
≤90d 49 +1.1% -8.5% 37% 6% -8.1%
all 84 +2.5% -7.3% 38% 7% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 7% -8.2%
10% -16.1% 5% -17.0%
15% -24.2% 2% -25.0%
20% -31.7% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.4 per $1 lost it wins $3.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized+$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses32 / 52
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage260d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $211 $211 +$0 (+0%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $141 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $70 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $447 +$2 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $62 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $418 +$2 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $209 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $209 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $152 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $371 +$61 +16%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $141 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $230 +$3 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $492 −$2 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $26 −$3 -12%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $58 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $157 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $135 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $151 −$2 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $7 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 30 $65 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $45 +$66 +147%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $114 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $176 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $150 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $168 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $153 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $116 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $66 −$5 -7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $6 +$1 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $4 $0 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $199 +$11 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $86 +$1 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $117 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $125 −$7 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $321 +$12 +4%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $47 −$4 -8%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $691 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $103 −$16 -16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $389 +$3 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $319 −$6 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $29 −$2 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $69 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $142 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $104 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $37 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $1 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $65 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $73 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $3 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $70 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $70 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $77 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $28 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $78 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $179 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 41h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $28 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $40 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $40 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $2 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $101 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $171 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $39 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.25 · official $211.09 (match) · 518 history records