Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:52:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1c25…6bbc sports 835 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$493 (-6%) realized −$485 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%511W / 321L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day110.6pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$137
14 days+$65
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$21
crypto 24% −$239
world 0% +$5
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 266 +11.3% +0.7% 68% 52% -1.6%
≤30d 832 +5.0% -5.0% 61% 47% -12.1%
≤90d 832 +5.0% -5.0% 61% 47% -12.1%
all 832 +5.0% -5.0% 61% 47% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 47% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 40% -20.5%
15% -22.4% 32% -28.2%
20% -30.0% 25% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$485
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses511 / 321
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions3
Markets (closed)832 / 835
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day110.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 832 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 56¢ 100¢ $42 $75 +$33 (+79%)
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 80¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+25%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 76¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 81¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $12 $0 +2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $17 −$9 -55%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $12 +$9 +72%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $8 +$4 +53%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$6 +36%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $18 −$2 -10%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $7 −$1 -10%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 −$1 -14%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $33 −$5 -14%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 +$3 +46%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $3 +$2 +55%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $21 +$5 +25%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $12 +$1 +5%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +38%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $6 +$2 +26%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 +$3 +57%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $6 +$4 +67%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 16 $8 +$2 +28%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 16 $9 +$3 +37%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $42 +$17 +42%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 98¢ $6 13m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $6 15m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 87¢ $6 22m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 80¢ $6 29m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $6 47m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $6 47m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 76¢ $3 51m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $2 53m
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 80¢ $6 56m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 79¢ $6 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 98¢ $6 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $6 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 37¢ $6 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 97¢ $6 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 77¢ $5 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 61¢ $6 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ $6 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $6 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 24¢ $0 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 85¢ $6 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $5 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 99¢ $6 2h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 77¢ $4 2h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 49¢ $3 2h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 73¢ $5 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 2h
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Houston Astros 15¢ $6 2h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 28¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.83 · official $85.83 (match) · 3500 history records