Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1C 0x1c20…2256 other 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,989 (-8%) realized −$1,988 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate70%88W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days−$829
14 days−$829
30 days−$829
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$944
sports 32% −$991
world 2% +$44
crypto 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -81.6% -83.4% 12% 12% -78.9%
≤30d 8 -81.6% -83.4% 12% 12% -78.9%
≤90d 8 -81.6% -83.4% 12% 12% -78.9%
all 125 -13.9% -22.1% 70% 58% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 58% -16.7%
10% -29.6% 20% -24.7%
15% -36.4% 6% -31.9%
20% -42.6% 3% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$157 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$1,988
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses88 / 37
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage527d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 50¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $172 +$81 +47%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 13 $122 −$120 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $121 −$120 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $122 −$120 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $122 −$120 -98%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-05-31? Jun 01 $270 +$95 +35%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-25? May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-25? May 31 $60 −$60 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Nuggets (To Advance) May 31 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-16? May 31 $150 +$26 +18%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-18? May 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Leicester win on 2025-05-11? May 12 $75 +$8 +11%
Knicks vs. Celtics May 06 $300 −$300 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Rockets vs. Warriors (To Advance) May 05 $300 +$66 +22%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-01? May 02 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-04-30? May 01 $550 +$129 +24%
Will Barcelona vs. Inter end in a draw? Apr 30 $200 −$5 -3%
Bucks vs. Pacers Apr 30 $300 +$90 +30%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 30 $350 +$62 +18%
Pacers vs. Bucks Apr 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Everton win on 2025-04-26? Apr 26 $300 +$37 +12%
Pacers vs. Bucks Apr 26 $300 +$148 +49%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Apr 25 $100 +$127 +127%
Warriors vs. Rockets Apr 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Apr 24 $300 +$53 +18%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 24 $400 +$88 +22%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-23? Apr 24 $400 +$40 +10%
Bucks vs. Pacers Apr 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Apr 23 $100 +$45 +45%
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Apr 21 $300 +$41 +14%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $300 +$48 +16%
Will Southampton win on 2025-04-19? Apr 20 $200 +$41 +20%
Will Everton win on 2025-04-19? Apr 20 $420 +$118 +28%
Heat vs. Bulls Apr 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-16? Apr 19 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-16? Apr 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-16? Apr 19 $580 +$119 +20%
Will Ipswich win on 2025-04-13? Apr 13 $200 +$11 +5%
Will West Ham win on 2025-04-13? Apr 13 $200 +$15 +8%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-13? Apr 13 $300 +$59 +20%
Will Everton win on 2025-04-12? Apr 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Southampton win on 2025-04-12? Apr 13 $200 +$33 +16%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-12? Apr 12 $200 +$41 +20%
Will Rangers win on 2025-04-10? Apr 11 $210 +$58 +28%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? Apr 10 $440 +$44 +10%
Will Leicester win on 2025-04-07? Apr 08 $602 +$74 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $152 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 39h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 24¢ $31 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $122 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $121 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $122 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $122 4d
Thunder vs. Pacers BUY Thunder 18¢ $10 370d
Will Inter win on 2025-05-31? BUY No 74¢ $270 381d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-25? BUY No 82¢ $50 387d
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 387d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-16? BUY No 85¢ $150 396d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-18? BUY No 91¢ $100 396d
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Nuggets (To Advance) BUY Nuggets 18¢ $150 400d
Will Leicester win on 2025-05-11? BUY No 90¢ $75 401d
Knicks vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 79¢ $300 407d
NBA Playoffs: Rockets vs. Warriors (To Advance) BUY Warriors 82¢ $200 410d
NBA Playoffs: Rockets vs. Warriors (To Advance) BUY Warriors 82¢ $100 410d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-01? BUY No 74¢ $450 411d
Will Inter win on 2025-04-30? BUY No 81¢ $210 412d
Will Barcelona vs. Inter end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $195 412d
Will Inter win on 2025-04-30? BUY No 81¢ $240 412d
Will Barcelona vs. Inter end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $200 412d
Will Inter win on 2025-04-30? BUY No 81¢ $100 412d
Magic vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 85¢ $350 413d
Bucks vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 77¢ $300 413d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.53 · official $148.53 (match) · 318 history records