Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1C 0x1c1f…0035 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$217 (-10%) realized −$178 · open −$39
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$248
world 30% −$197
other 18% −$169
economics 2% −$37
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.4% -6.4% 50% 50% +5.6%
≤30d 6 -20.6% -28.2% 50% 50% -23.1%
≤90d 9 -29.3% -36.0% 33% 33% -30.8%
all 14 -24.6% -31.8% 43% 43% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.8% 43% -16.0%
10% -38.3% 29% -24.0%
15% -44.3% 0% -31.4%
20% -49.7% 0% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$54 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized−$178
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage156d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 49¢ 48¢ $243 $240 −$2 (-1%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 11¢ $54 $17 −$37 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $153 +$50 +33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $58 −$15 -26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $45 +$11 +24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $132 −$118 -89%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $121 +$41 +34%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $150 −$67 -44%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 23 $40 −$15 -38%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $30 −$17 -57%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 15 $301 −$125 -42%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28? Mar 01 $160 +$19 +12%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 26 $133 +$27 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 24 $20 −$20 -99%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $506 +$147 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $246 3m
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $113 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 14¢ $43 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $90 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $58 8h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $153 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $56 16d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $56 16d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $45 16d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $14 16d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $132 16d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 74¢ $121 17d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 15¢ $83 37d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? SELL No 20¢ $25 37d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? SELL No $13 37d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? BUY No 32¢ $40 37d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY No 14¢ $30 37d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 27¢ $150 37d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $54 102d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $54 106d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $125 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL Yes 36¢ $122 112d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $177 119d
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28? SELL No 98¢ $0 120d
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28? SELL No 99¢ $45 120d
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28? SELL No 99¢ $134 120d
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28? BUY No 89¢ $160 123d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $160 123d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $133 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $20 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.48 · official $257.48 (match) · 33 history records