Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1C 0x1c1e…bfe7 politics 136 markets active 85d ago coverage 70d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$183,778 (+38%) realized +$183,174 · open +$603
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate61%82W / 52L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$3,526per market
Trades / day42.8pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 43% +$21,598
politics 25% +$11,239
other 18% +$10,908
world 11% +$3,911
sports 1% +$11
tech 1% +$4,640
culture 1% +$39
crypto 0% +$66
finance 0% −$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 134 +49.0% +34.8% 61% 40% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +34.8% 40% +0.6%
10% +21.9% 31% -9.0%
15% ← realistic here +10.2% 22% -17.8%
20% -0.6% 18% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$1,232) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +102% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$962 vs −$568 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$1,346
Realized+$183,174
Unrealized+$603
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses82 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions30
Markets (closed)134 / 136
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$3,526
Trades / day42.8
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $94 $482 +$387 (+410%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $45 $197 +$152 (+336%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $40 $165 +$125 (+311%)
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026? Yes 64¢ 88¢ $116 $161 +$45 (+38%)
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $40 $85 +$45 (+112%)
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $42 $82 +$41 (+97%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $40 $65 +$25 (+62%)
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes 38¢ 69¢ $19 $35 +$16 (+83%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 76¢ $17 $22 +$5 (+27%)
Will a new country buy Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? No 50¢ 99¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+98%)
Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $24 $7 −$17 (-71%)
Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $6 −$10 (-62%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 40¢ 24¢ $9 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-41%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $26 $1 −$25 (-96%)
US defaults on debt by 2027? No 87¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Another Elon baby by June 30? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $32 $1 −$31 (-97%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $144 $1 −$144 (-99%)
Will Trump resign before 2027? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 10¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-84%)
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? No 84¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31? Mar 26 $56 −$50 -90%
Will Trump say "Egg" during Iowa speech? Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by February 28? Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will one person dissent the January Fed decision? Mar 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys? Mar 26 $2,034 +$13 +1%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Mar 26 $446 +$970 +217%
Will Ryanair say "On-Time" or "On Time" during earnings call? Mar 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Leavitt say "More" or "Again" 20+ times during the next White Hou Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Leavitt say "Biden" 5+ times during the next press briefing? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Mar 26 $47 −$20 -42%
Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision? Mar 26 $45 +$10 +23%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Mar 26 $1 +$3 +256%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? Mar 26 $2,061 +$161 +8%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during 2pm signing? Mar 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Mar 26 $1,032 +$9 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Mar 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Da Bomb" on Hot Ones? Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Leavitt say "President" 60+ times during the next press briefing? Mar 26 $325 +$402 +124%
Will Applovin (APP) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 26 $47 −$47 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by January 31? Mar 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? Mar 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 mi Mar 26 $101 −$1 -1%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Mar 26 $10 −$9 -87%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? Mar 26 $380 +$20 +5%
Will Leavitt say "Go ahead" 6+ times during the next press briefing? Mar 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by January 31? Mar 26 $10 +$18 +180%
Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release? Mar 26 $500 $0 -0%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? Mar 26 $1,941 +$59 +3%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Mar 26 $662 −$662 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute Mar 26 $8,572 +$196 +2%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Mar 26 $85 −$5 -6%
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? Mar 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 17, 2026? Mar 26 $1,032 +$2 +0%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–M Mar 26 $4 +$43 +1074%
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Rese Mar 26 $435 −$350 -80%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Mar 26 $1,365 −$1,365 -100%
Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30? Mar 26 $55 +$89 +162%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute Mar 26 $405 −$33 -8%
Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $1,070 +$66 +6%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Mar 26 $5,412 +$33 +1%
Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Mar 26 $17,450 −$16,208 -93%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 26 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Mar 26 $179 +$10 +6%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 26 $37,335 +$8,335 +22%
Will Lady Gaga win 2 Grammys? Mar 26 $1,232 +$26 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 85d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $2 89d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $20 89d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $14 89d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $20 89d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $12 89d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $15 90d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $1 90d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $5 90d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House SELL Yes 1¢ $1 90d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House SELL Yes 1¢ $11 90d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House SELL Yes 1¢ $1 90d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House SELL Yes 1¢ $5 90d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $5 90d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House SELL Yes 1¢ $5 90d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $0 91d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $0 91d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $0 91d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $8 91d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $1 91d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $1 91d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $1 91d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $0 91d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House SELL Yes 1¢ $1 91d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House SELL Yes 1¢ $0 91d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House SELL Yes 1¢ $4 92d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House SELL Yes 1¢ $4 92d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $0 92d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $0 92d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $1 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,345.73 · official $1,345.32 (match) · 3500 history records