Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c1d…e1f4 other 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,584 (-1%) realized −$1,584 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%20W / 158L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,223per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$26
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$396
politics 36% −$100
sports 10% −$1,130
economics 3% −$3
culture 2% −$7
tech 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 -7.0% -15.9% 5% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 114 -3.4% -12.6% 4% 3% -10.1%
all 178 -7.6% -16.4% 11% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 6% -10.2%
10% -24.4% 6% -18.8%
15% -31.7% 5% -26.6%
20% -38.4% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,613) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$17 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$578
Realized−$1,584
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses20 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)178 / 180
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,223
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $396 $396 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $182 $182 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $318 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,482 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $414 −$1 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $463 +$1 +0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,411 −$2 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 17 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $316 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $371 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $4,531 −$6 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $445 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $2,243 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,872 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $320 $0 -0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $79 +$24 +31%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,680 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,369 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,839 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $632 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,133 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,744 −$4 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $2,244 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,548 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $3,467 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $3,331 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,927 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,861 −$2 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,922 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,102 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,601 −$4 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $2,103 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $973 −$2 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $77 +$35 +46%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $2,209 −$3 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 20 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 19 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $1,260 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $396 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $317 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $318 3h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $214 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $413 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $414 3d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $201 4d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $3 4d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $198 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $350 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $351 4d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $436 5d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $437 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $303 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $303 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $316 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $316 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $371 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $371 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $359 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $360 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $414 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $414 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $182 10d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $521 11d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $522 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $444 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $445 11d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $431 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $578.12 · official $578.12 (match) · 606 history records