Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c15…c2bf crypto 410 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,151 (-16%) realized −$1,102 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%117W / 276L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$65
14 days−$314
30 days−$464
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$295
weather 8% −$237
other 6% −$208
world 6% −$126
sports 5% −$196
economics 3% −$118
politics 1% −$64
finance 0% −$23
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +6.2% -3.9% 4% 4% -62.9%
≤30d 83 -30.8% -37.4% 18% 17% -43.9%
≤90d 393 -33.1% -39.4% 30% 26% -25.5%
all 393 -33.1% -39.4% 30% 26% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.4% 26% -25.5%
10% -45.2% 22% -32.7%
15% -50.5% 20% -39.2%
20% -55.4% 16% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$1,102
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses117 / 276
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)393 / 410
History coverage73d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $43 $27 −$16 (-37%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $41 $15 −$26 (-63%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-71%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Qatar vs. Switzerland Jun 14 $1 +$23 +2222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $22 −$16 -74%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5? Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 09 $6 −$1 -14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $25 −$4 -17%
Spread: Italy (-1.5) Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $36 +$19 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $8 +$5 +61%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views on day 6? Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 10 or more seats in South Korea Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $7 −$1 -10%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Nigeria (-2.5) Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Nigeria (-1.5) Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 03 $233 −$72 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 31 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 31 $21 +$80 +378%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $2 6h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $5 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 15h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 19h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $5 21h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) AND Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) AND Spread: BUY 53¢ $13 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 24¢ $1 43h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 0¢ $0 43h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecua BUY 4¢ $1 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) AND Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY 8¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 36¢ $10 2d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY 13¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Qatar vs. Switzerland SELL 98¢ $24 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13 BUY 19¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.89 · official $45.89 (match) · 1720 history records