Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:12:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c15…7fdf sports 101 markets active 3d ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$55 (-7%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate26%26W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$7
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$37
politics 15% −$4
other 13% −$14
crypto 4% −$6
world 1% −$2
tech 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.5% -15.4% 33% 33% -12.1%
≤30d 20 -19.1% -26.8% 20% 15% -26.6%
≤90d 100 -1.3% -10.7% 26% 18% -17.4%
all 100 -1.3% -10.7% 26% 18% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 18% -17.4%
10% -19.2% 14% -25.3%
15% -27.0% 9% -32.5%
20% -34.2% 7% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses26 / 74
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage87d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? No 48¢ 47¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -48%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +32%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -27%
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -22%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Jodie Burrage vs Anna Blinkova Jun 07 $5 −$1 -12%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 05 $5 $0 -9%
ITF Wuning: Wushuang Zheng vs JiaYi Wang Jun 04 $4 −$2 -41%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A May 29 $4 +$1 +28%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026? May 29 $4 −$3 -62%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $5 $0 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 27 $5 −$1 -29%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 25 $6 −$3 -48%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 25 $5 $0 -11%
Will XRP dip to $1.30 May 18-24? May 23 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 21 $5 +$1 +14%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $4 −$1 -16%
Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 May 18 $4 −$3 -65%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 17 $4 −$3 -64%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 30 $5 $0 -4%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 30 $4 +$1 +17%
Spread: Derby County FC (-1.5) Apr 30 $4 −$2 -50%
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Creighton Bluejays: O/U 151.5 Apr 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC) win the most seats in the 202 Apr 27 $4 +$1 +38%
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? Apr 21 $7 −$1 -20%
Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virg Apr 15 $4 +$3 +66%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Apr 14 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary elect Apr 14 $4 +$14 +327%
Will Brinker Harding be the Republican nominee for NE-02? Apr 11 $9 −$5 -50%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 11 $9 −$1 -15%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 10 $4 $0 -3%
Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Apr 10 $7 −$4 -58%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 10 $27 −$2 -6%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 10 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 09 $5 $0 +7%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 08 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Apr 07 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Apr 07 $5 −$1 -25%
Predators vs. Sharks Apr 05 $5 +$2 +49%
UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Alice Pereira (Women's Bantamweight, Apr 04 $5 −$1 -27%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 139.5 Apr 04 $14 $0 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 04 $5 $0 -3%
Panthers vs. Penguins Apr 04 $5 $0 -3%
Red Wings vs. Rangers Apr 04 $5 $0 -2%
Club Tijuana vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 2.5 Apr 04 $5 −$1 -21%
Houston Astros vs. Athletics Apr 04 $10 +$6 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? SELL No $2 3d
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL Noir Esports 51¢ $5 5d
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? BUY No 48¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? BUY No $4 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL No 92¢ $4 6d
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Noir Esports 51¢ $5 6d
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra SELL Lois Boisson 33¢ $4 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL No 77¢ $2 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 63¢ $5 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? SELL No 35¢ $3 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? BUY No 53¢ $5 7d
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra BUY Lois Boisson 36¢ $5 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? SELL No 40¢ $4 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY No 53¢ $5 8d
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings? SELL No $2 9d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Jodie Burrage vs Anna Blinkova SELL Jodie Burrage 33¢ $4 10d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Jodie Burrage vs Anna Blinkova BUY Jodie Burrage 36¢ $5 10d
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No $3 11d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S SELL FUT Esports 44¢ $4 11d
ITF Wuning: Wushuang Zheng vs JiaYi Wang SELL Wushuang Zheng 13¢ $2 13d
ITF Wuning: Wushuang Zheng vs JiaYi Wang BUY Wushuang Zheng 21¢ $4 13d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $5 13d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL No $5 18d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026? SELL No $2 18d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026? BUY No $4 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $3 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 90¢ $2 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $3 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $5 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.52 · official $4.52 (match) · 318 history records