Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c14…6342 crypto 791 markets active 1h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,974 (-4%) realized −$6,022 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate77%588W / 173L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$7,344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$167
7 days−$298
14 days−$136
30 days−$1,077
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$3,166
world 36% −$1,158
politics 14% −$1,352
other 4% −$605
finance 0% +$6
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -1.0% -10.4% 68% 26% -14.4%
≤30d 220 -9.9% -18.5% 65% 18% -13.2%
≤90d 722 -5.3% -14.3% 78% 14% -14.1%
all 761 -5.1% -14.2% 77% 16% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 16% -14.1%
10% -22.4% 10% -22.3%
15% -29.9% 6% -29.8%
20% -36.8% 5% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$60 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$7,344
Realized−$6,022
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses588 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions30
Markets (closed)761 / 791
History coverage587d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 761 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $1,301 $1,330 +$29 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,201 $1,223 +$22 (+2%)
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $600 $602 +$2 (+0%)
Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $560 $578 +$18 (+3%)
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? No 89¢ 90¢ $450 $452 +$2 (+0%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 93¢ 90¢ $400 $390 −$10 (-2%)
Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31? No 95¢ 96¢ $250 $251 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No 97¢ 97¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 94¢ 93¢ $201 $200 −$1 (-0%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $201 $200 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31? No 90¢ 90¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $106 $110 +$4 (+4%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31? No 88¢ 88¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? No 91¢ 90¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31? No 93¢ 94¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iraq recognize Israel by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31? No 92¢ 92¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 88¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $40 −$12 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$5 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $35 +$3 +8%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $81 −$28 -35%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $208 −$23 -11%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $701 −$117 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$6 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $84 −$66 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2h
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 11h
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $28 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,344.33 · official $7,344.33 (match) · 3092 history records