Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:13:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1c14…0869
politics · 404 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$66,436 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$40,827 · open +$20,284
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$115,083
Realized+$40,827
Unrealized+$20,284
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses222 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions160
Markets (closed)293 / 404
History coverage74d
Avg bet$1,193
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 160 History 293 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$1,174
14 days+$1,173
30 days+$28,062
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 15¢ 39¢ $6,112 $16,408 +$10,296 (+168%)
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Yes 85¢ 93¢ $10,254 $11,116 +$862 (+8%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 99¢ 99¢ $9,930 $9,875 −$55 (-1%)
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? Yes 83¢ 98¢ $7,515 $8,811 +$1,295 (+17%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $3,972 $7,172 +$3,201 (+81%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1,347 $4,675 +$3,328 (+247%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $3,888 $4,340 +$452 (+12%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No 36¢ 40¢ $3,071 $3,446 +$376 (+12%)
Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,210 $3,224 +$15 (+0%)
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,395 $3,156 −$240 (-7%)
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,144 $3,016 +$872 (+41%)
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-12 House seat? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $2,541 $2,611 +$70 (+3%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 34¢ $3,741 $2,541 −$1,200 (-32%)
Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat? Yes 11¢ 84¢ $253 $1,986 +$1,733 (+686%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $1,730 $1,718 −$11 (-1%)
Will Jocelyn Benson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $1,564 $1,639 +$75 (+5%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $1,924 $1,521 −$403 (-21%)
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No 38¢ 57¢ $981 $1,490 +$509 (+52%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 93¢ 99¢ $1,281 $1,363 +$81 (+6%)
Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 88¢ 95¢ $1,162 $1,265 +$102 (+9%)
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $1,013 $1,047 +$34 (+3%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 66¢ 76¢ $863 $987 +$123 (+14%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 37¢ 41¢ $875 $980 +$104 (+12%)
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $651 $908 +$257 (+39%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 39¢ 44¢ $784 $875 +$90 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $5,490 +$64 +1%
Will Thunder Parley advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $629 +$4 +1%
Will David Thelen advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Raji Rab advance from the 2026 California Governor primary electi Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Will Sharifah Hardie advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Leonard Jackson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $164 +$1 +1%
Will Daniel Mercuri advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will Jimmy Parker advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $215 +$1 +1%
Will Ian Calderon advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $56 $0 +1%
Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Carolina Buhler advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Sophia Brink advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will Leo Zacky advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elect Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ramsey Robinson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $1,061 +$4 +0%
Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $298 +$2 +1%
Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Zoltan Istvan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Kyle Langford advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $28 $0 +1%
Will Dylan Colbert advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $1,091 +$7 +1%
Will Ryan Tillman advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Ché Ahn advance from the 2026 California Governor primary electio Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will David Serpa advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Matt Mahan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elaine Culotti advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Javen Allen advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Butch Ware advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $181 +$1 +1%
Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elect Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Nicki Minaj advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Karen Bass finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angel Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will Paul Dans be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by September 30? Jun 10 $36 +$10 +27%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $179 +$79 +44%
Will Nithya Raman & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2 Jun 09 $10 $0 -2%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 09 $755 +$817 +108%
Will Gina Viola finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angel Jun 09 $110 $0 +0%
Will Monica Rodriguez finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lindsey Horvath finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los A Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lindsey Horvath finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 09 $142 −$106 -75%
Will a candidate win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election in the firs Jun 09 $5 $0 +10%
Will Asaad Alnajjar finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Austin Beutner finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los A Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Rick Caruso finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angel Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $3,502 +$35 +1%
Will Asaad Alnajjar finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los A Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Rick Caruso finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 09 $1,921 +$127 +7%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $167 −$111 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 68% +$33,922
world 23% +$16,959
other 8% +$10,435
economics 1% −$1,177
finance 0% +$893
crypto 0% +$14
sports 0% +$113
culture 0% −$67
tech 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 92¢ $161 2h
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,822 11h
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 93¢ $90 11h
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 93¢ $283 17h
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 93¢ $428 17h
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 93¢ $84 19h
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 93¢ $707 21h
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 93¢ $41 21h
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 36¢ $482 22h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 20¢ $31 25h
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY No 95¢ $19 27h
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? BUY No 70¢ $28 27h
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele SELL Yes 100¢ $5,323 35h
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele SELL Yes 100¢ $1 35h
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele SELL Yes 100¢ $1 40h
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele SELL Yes 100¢ $5 43h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $370 45h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $250 2d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 2d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 91¢ $911 3d
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary e SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 91¢ $453 3d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 3d
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 99¢ $2,660 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 6% -7.3%
≤30d 182 +2.6% -7.1% 80% 26% +11.0%
≤90d 293 +5.1% -4.9% 76% 32% +5.9%
all 293 +5.1% -4.9% 76% 32% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 32% +5.9%
10% -14.0% 26% -4.2%
15% ← realistic here -22.3% 20% -13.5%
20% -29.9% 15% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115,082.83 · official $115,091.85 (match) · 3500 history records